Unprecedented flooding in Pakistan’s Punjab province, caused by swollen rivers and record monsoon rains, has killed at least 30 people and affected over 1.5 million.1 With nearly half a million people evacuated, authorities are now bracing for a new threat as the floodwaters surge south toward the Indus River, warning of “very high flood” levels in the coming days.
A Historic Deluge and Escalating Crisis
Pakistan is grappling with a severe flood crisis in its breadbasket province of Punjab, where the simultaneous overflow of the Chenab, Ravi, and Sutlej rivers a first in the country’s history has caused widespread devastation. The floods, driven by intense monsoon rains and water released from upstream dams in India, have submerged more than 2,300 villages, killing at least 30 people and impacting over 1.5 million.4 The Punjab Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has called the response the “biggest rescue operation in Punjab’s history,” successfully evacuating 481,000 residents and 405,000 livestock to safer ground.
The humanitarian effort is immense, with officials setting up 511 relief camps, 351 medical camps, and 321 veterinary camps. However, the scale of the disaster is overwhelming, with farmers reporting the loss of all their crops and belongings. While the government has pledged compensation for losses, many are still struggling to access assistance on the ground.
The Looming Threat of the Indus River
The crisis is far from over. Authorities are now warning of a new, potentially catastrophic threat as the floodwaters from the eastern rivers converge with the mighty Indus River. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a caution that the Indus River at the Guddu and Sukkur barrages is expected to reach “very high flood levels” between September 4-5. The Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) data confirms this, with a projected dangerous rise in water levels at multiple key locations.
The flooding highlights a recurring and complex issue for Pakistan: the management of transboundary rivers shared with India. Pakistani officials have expressed concern over India’s management of its dams, pointing to the high levels of water in the Bhakra, Pong, and Thein dams. Pakistan has previously accused India of releasing excess water during peak monsoon periods, exacerbating flood risks in downstream areas.
Long-Term Vulnerability and Climate Change
This year’s floods follow a devastating pattern of extreme weather events in Pakistan, including the catastrophic 2022 floods that submerged a third of the country and killed over 1,700 people.14 While the immediate focus is on rescue and relief, the recurring nature of these disasters underscores Pakistan’s extreme vulnerability to climate change. The country is ranked among the ten most vulnerable to climate change, despite contributing less than 1% to global carbon emissions.
This event serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for a more proactive approach to disaster management, including improved early warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and long-term adaptation strategies. Without these measures, Pakistan will continue to face the devastating consequences of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and intense with each passing year.
